1CMO

Growth strategy | Advisory | Force multiplier

Kimball Norup

We Now Live in a VUCA World

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“There is nothing more certain and unchanging than uncertainty and change” – John F. Kennedy

For the foreseeable future, volatility and uncertainty appear to be the only two things we can count on.

As our government and business leaders begin contemplating how to restart the economy without further stoking the pandemic, we must also begin looking for new strategic planning frameworks that can help us navigate and succeed in this uncharted territory.

The past several months have illustrated something the US military has known and grappled with for over three decades: we live in a dangerous and unpredictable world, and yet we must be prepared to handle every scenario thrown at us.

Attempting to solve the dichotomy between unpredictability and the need for planning gets to the heart of a framework the U.S. Army developed in early 1990s. They coined the acronym VUCA to describe the new post-Cold War environment that we found ourselves in after the fall of the Berlin Wall:

  • Volatile – The accelerating rate of change, without a clear or predictable trend or pattern
  • Uncertain – The lack of predictability, frequently disruptive changes with unknown outcomes
  • Complex – The interconnection and dependencies of many cause-and-effect forces
  • Ambiguous – The strong potential for misreads, little clarity about what is “real” or “true”

With this description of their “new normal” VUCA operational environment, they developed frameworks and playbooks to allowed military leaders to plan for and effectively respond to any threats, with the right force, anywhere in the world. This new flexible approach to planning has enabled the Army to rapidly mix and match forces and adapt to a more complex and uncertain operational environment.

It should come as no surprise that this concept of VUCA has great non-military application as well.

If we add COVID-19 to the other significant drivers that exist in today’s global economy (including the transformational growth and impact of technology, globalization, and environmental change) you get a massive VUCA environment. When you consider that all these drivers are accelerating and converging simultaneously our challenge becomes clear.

We now live in a VUCA world, and no leader, organization, or industry is immune.

Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity all play a role in how business leaders must make decisions, solve problems, lead teams, mitigate risks, and innovate for change. They can also provide a strategic framework for leaders and businesses to plan, and make decisions.

If you embrace this basic VUCA framework, a playbook for turning VUCA to your advantage begins to emerge:

  1. We can counter volatility with vision.
  2. We can meet uncertainty with understanding.
  3. We can react to complexity with clarity.
  4. We can fight ambiguity with agility.

The biggest risk of a VUCA environment is that it can lead to inaction. People can become confused and overwhelmed by the turmoil and, as a result, rendered immobile. In a warfighting scenario those who sit still usually end up dead. To succeed we must take action.

In upcoming articles we’ll dig further into VUCA and how leaders can build out and execute the basic playbook above.

-Onward

Crisis Can Lead to Opportunity

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“Never let a good crisis go to waste” – Winston Churchill

There are two Kanji characters used in both Chinese and Japanese to spell the word ‘crisis’, the first symbolizes ‘danger’ and the second ‘opportunity.’ I can’t think of a more appropriate analogy for today’s unsettled COVID-19 world.

The global pandemic has proven to be a dangerous crisis. But it can also lead us to opportunity. If we look.

The quote from Winston Churchill alludes to the phenomenon that a crisis can provide the opportunity for real lasting change to take place. The crisis acts as the catalyst. From there we have to look for the opportunity, and then take action.

Why is this? The fear, uncertainty, and constraints created by a crisis trigger a primordial human fight or flight response. We essentially have two options: We can try to run or hide from the challenge. Or, we can embrace it. In either case, we have to recognize it and take some action.

This process of confronting a crisis, and getting inspired to take action requires focused thought and problem-solving creativity. The shocking and disruptive forces of a crisis like COVID-19 can expose cracks and weaknesses in business and political structures, beginning the process of breaking down barriers and eliminating roadblocks to change.

If we recognize and embrace them this phenomenon can accelerate change and lead to real innovation.

While it would be an absolute lie to say that I’m thankful for this crisis, I do appreciate the opportunities it will provide. Again, I categorically detest COVID-19, but as a business strategist and eternal optimist, I am choosing to see that some good might come from it also.

Let me explain.

In the short-term we are likely to remain in a business environment where there will only be room for “must haves” versus “nice to haves.” Due to reductions in financial and human capital, most business leaders will limit themselves to operating with a survivalist mindset of protecting the core.

However, truly strategic business leaders will also have their eye on the future. Growth strategists will realize that there has never been a better time in history to challenge assumptions. Every business in every industry is at some risk of disruption.

Long-term, everything is up for grabs. Business models will change. Industries will transform. Some organizations will grow, others won’t ever come back…

My counsel is to embrace this year as a strange gift. If you are a brave business leader, or in marketing or strategy, it is a chance to be a pioneer. A rare opportunity to transform your business, industry, and career.

Entrepreneurial change agents will seize this moment as an opportunity to think about “what should we do differently” instead of “how do we get back to where we were” and, as a result, position their organization for growth as we emerge out the other side of this crisis.

If your organization was in good shape before, use this crisis to get even stronger and grow market share. Don’t be afraid to challenge assumptions and make improvements that will help to future-proof your business. If you were weak, or threatened, it is an invitation to double-down and blow up your business model. While not quite a free “do-over” it is a great chance to “re-set.” Take it!

Now ask yourself, what trends will this crisis accelerate in your industry? How will you compete and thrive in a post-COVID economy?

More to come on these questions in upcoming articles…

-Onward

We Are Now in Uncharted Waters

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“Change means traveling in uncharted waters and this causes our insecurities to rise.” – John C. Maxwell

I’ve had a number of conversations with friends and colleagues recently where we try to reconcile what’s happened in the last 60 days with our personal and professional life experiences.

These discussions follow a consistent story arc: They typically begin with some topic around our current COVID-19 reality, then bridge to how quickly and dramatically things progressed from the pre-COVID normal, and finally end with some conjecture around what the post-COVID “new normal” might look like.

This pre-COVID/COVID/post-COVID framework will likely shape many discussions in our personal lives, and the world of business and politics, as we move forward.

It is human nature to seek out a frame of reference, something from our past to compare with current reality. Not only does it provide us some comfort that we’ve been there before, but it can also yield some clues about how best to move forward.

Reality check – for almost every one of us there has been nothing in our lifetime like COVID-19, with its profound impact on almost every aspect of our daily lives and shattering impact on the global economy.

To put this into perspective, most professionals in the workforce today can remember the Great Recession of 2007-2009. It was caused by the subprime mortgage crisis, which itself was caused by the unregulated use of complicated financial devices called derivatives. If you weren’t in the workforce then, you likely remember it.

Some of us have heard stories about the Great Depression from our parents or grandparents. It began after the stock market crashed in October 1929, which destroyed the life savings of millions of investors. Over the next several years, consumer spending and investment dropped, causing steep declines in industrial output and employment as companies laid off workers. This is generally held out as the “worst case” example in modern history.

Unfortunately, the current COVID-19 pandemic is not like either of these past two events. I say unfortunately, because what we’re facing now is not just a significant stock market decline, but also a health crisis, and labor market crisis, and political crisis, and oil crisis…to name a few.

It is a perfect storm of issues. There are still many unknowns, and we don’t yet have a map.

Like the great explorers who set out to “discover” the new world, we are heading into uncharted waters. They likely wondered, “Is the world flat?” or, “Will our ship fall off the edge once we sail beyond the horizon?” Today many are likely wondering things like “Is there going to be another virus?” or, “Will we find a vaccine?”

COVID-19 has done a great job of illustrating just how interconnected our global economy is. It not only caused the rapid spread of the virus, but also its financial impacts.

Which leads us to our economy, which is driven largely by consumer demand and government spending, and powered by complex global supply chains.

How will we re-start it?

It would be really convenient if there was a simple on/off switch. But it’s not that easy. Perhaps the best analogy is a hyper-sensitive dial that must be slowly and carefully turned so as to not overly stress any part of the machine. This will be the next task at hand for our government and business leaders. How to safely get things going again…

Against this backdrop, we can’t just sit and wait. We must also begin looking for new strategic planning frameworks to help us navigate and succeed in this uncharted territory.

For the foreseeable future, volatility and uncertainty seem to be the only two things we can count on.

-Onward

Walking Before We Run

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“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step” – Lao Tzu

We are now entering a very strange and unprecedented time in our history.

Somewhere in the murky intersection of successfully “flattening the curve”, slowing rates of new COVID hospitalizations, and the promise of a future vaccine, political and business leaders around the globe are beginning to contemplate exactly how we begin lifting the shelter-in-place quarantines and re-starting the economy.

Absolutely nothing in this equation is easy, nor do we have a proven roadmap to follow.

The ugly backdrop to this story is the impossible goal of trying to find an acceptable balance between the horrifying loss of life and the unfathomable devastation we’ve seen in our economy over the past 60 days from COVID-19. There really isn’t a good answer in this situation.

What we do know is that we cannot sit still.

We have to take some action.

It is still too early to have a national, let alone global, plan in place. But I suspect that once we start there are some proven strategy execution principles from the world of startups and business growth that might translate and prove to be useful in this situation. A few that come to mind:

  • Segment the market. Taking an example from the very diverse United States – the approach we take in the populous and hard-hit state of New York will very likely be more cautious and measured compared to the largely rural and relatively unscathed state of Montana.
  • Take calculated risks. Instead of going all in, we will need to loosen restrictions and open up commerce in a thoughtful and measured way. This is the classic hypothesis/test/learn/refine approach from the startup world. It will allow us to validate what works, then rapidly accelerate. It might mean we open up more risk mitigated venues and businesses first – for example parks and low-volume stores before travel and movie theaters.
  • Iterate and learn. We will most certainly not get everything right the first time. However, taking an agile approach, executing rapid iterations and making decisions based upon data will lead us to the right path forward.
  • Maintain flexibility. We must remain open to confronting hard truths, and changing direction as a result. Not everything is going to work, and we may end up taking steps backward if the virus mounts a resurgence. The willingness and ability to pivot is vital for startups, and it will be for our political and business leaders. We must be willing to pivot when the market provides us with new lessons.
  • Focus on people. If “getting the right people on the bus” is startup 101, then keeping them happy and productive is startup 102. When the economy picks back up, business and political leaders need to maintain a focus on the wellbeing of the populace…not just the citizens of the country, but the citizens (i.e. the workforce) of each and every organization. I really believe many people have incurred economic and emotional trauma from this drawn out event, and it will take a lot of work help everyone recover. Getting people back to work and productive will prove to be good medicine!
  • Build momentum. Positive momentum is a secret startup force. It is the one remedy that cures nearly every ill. The simple fact is winning feels good. Small victories can lead to bigger ones. All of them provide motivation and positive energy. Its hard to argue that we couldn’t all use a little bit more of that!

I’ve often used the phrase “walk before you run” with growth teams during my career. This is a shorthand expression for acknowledging that we need to move fast and take some action, but we must strike a balance between executing strategically versus executing in a haphazard tactical way. If we go slowly first, we learn valuable lessons and can perfect the approach along the way before ramping up the pace. The end-goal is always to achieve the most economical and impactful outcome, with the least amount of pain and thrash to get there.

This mantra of crawling before you walk, and walking before you run, has served me well. Hopefully it also gets some adoption by business and political leaders in the upcoming weeks and months.

I’m looking forward to seeing how this unfolds.

– Onward

Searching for the New Normal

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“Challenges are gifts that force us to search for a new center of gravity. Don’t fight them. Just find a new way to stand.” – Oprah Winfrey

When things start to feel like they are out of control, I begin searching for a new center of gravity.

With so much uncertainty in the world at the moment I’m looking for some certainty. Something I can control. Something I can count on. A stable place to stand, and more importantly, a solid foundation to build from.

I doubt I’m the only one thinking like this.

Everyone is fatigued by the non-stop news cycle around COVID-19 (a.k.a. Coronavirus) that we’ve been subjected to 24/7.  

In the matter of just a few weeks Coronavirus has progressed from some mysterious “flu-like bug” in a distant Chinese city most had never heard of, to something that has completely disrupted every facet of daily life across the globe. The human and financial toll have been staggering.

We are all trying to make sense of it all, and yet also figure out how we might start to move on when this pandemic comes to pass. Which it will.

Looking ahead, to the time when the world emerges from our self-imposed “shelter in place” hibernation, I’m starting to think about what comes next. What is the “new normal” going to look like?

There is no question that our personal and work lives will be different, we just don’t yet quite know how.

I’m predicting we are about to enter a period of rapid business innovation, unlike anything the world has ever seen. Driven by the massive collective shock we’re in the midst of right now, and fueled by technology and shifting demographics, I think the world of work will be forever changed.

One obvious, but still dramatic, impact: there will be a lot more people working remotely. It is estimated that 78% of the US workforce (those who still have their jobs and aren’t in essential industries) are working from home during the crisis. This compares to roughly 4% just two months ago.

Take a few moments to think about that…

Smart CEO’s and thought leaders have been talking about and trying to implement digital transformation in the workplace for 10+ years. Yet COVID accomplished it in the matter of just a few weeks!

Moving forward, I think many more (perhaps most?) organizations will choose to structure themselves virtually, powered by remote workers doing distributed work.

It is hard to imagine an industry sector that won’t be impacted in some way. A few of the more obvious ones that will likely have their business models altered:

  • Healthcare
  • Travel and hospitality
  • Food services
  • Grocery
  • Retail

Fear of the unknown is the hard part of change. We know things won’t revert back to the way they were. We know change is coming and its necessary. We just don’t know what it is. In the vernacular of startups – it’s time for a pivot…

But pivot to what? We don’t know yet…

This lack of certainty can be very uncomfortable. However, if there is one important takeaway from the world of startup innovation it’s that you must get out of the building and into the market to find it. That’s where all the innovation and learnings will come from. And from that effort our new strategic plans will materialize. Then we can take action.

Put your seatbelt on. Once the economy starts back up and we all are no longer sheltering-in-place it is going to be a wild and crazy ride.

Post Script

This shelter-in-place “forced sabbatical” has been a challenge…sitting still and not being out in the market is hard! To keep busy, I’ve built this platform (called 1CMO) where I can share my thoughts and ideas on business strategy and growth with like-minded professionals, and offer my assistance as an advisor to those who want to grow their organizations. Who knows where it might take me – It could lead to some interesting early stage investments, another executive role, or perhaps a startup will materialize!

I hope you’ll join me on the journey by subscribing and becoming a regular reader of this blog.