Kimball Norup

“Change is the only constant in life. One’s ability to adapt to those changes will determine your success in life.” – Benjamin Franklin

We live in an increasingly VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) world. The winds of change are blowing in every direction, in every region, and across every industry.

At this point, there is only one safe conclusion: Current levels of disruption and unpredictability are likely not going away. Change is the only constant. So how best to move forward? How do you navigate through a VUCA environment and win?

In this challenging business climate, traditional strategic planning frameworks have proven to be distressingly inadequate. The speed and ferocity of the health and economic impacts caused by the pandemic caught many organizations flat-footed, and ill prepared to react quickly.

Faced with this uncertain and disruptive environment, a growing number of business leaders and growth strategists have been inspired to develop VUCA Strategic Plans to guide their organizations forward and better plan for an unknown future.

While VUCA has proven to be a valuable framework to visualize the disruptive environment we now operate in, it is not always easy to apply. This article will present some tactical remedies that business leaders and growth strategists can use to counter each of the VUCA forces.

VUCA Overview

As a quick reminder, the definition of VUCA:

• Volatility – The tendency for things to change quickly and unpredictably, typically for the worse. These challenges are unexpected or unstable, and may be of unknown duration. However, they are not necessarily hard to understand – knowledge about them is often available. The more volatile the world is, the more change there is and the faster that change occurs.
• Uncertainty – Situations where there is imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements, or to the unknown. Despite a lack of other information, we know the disruptive event’s basic cause and effect. Change is possible, but not a given. Uncertainty refers to the extent to which we can confidently predict the future, therefore the more uncertain the world is, the harder it is to predict.
• Complexity – Refers to the number of factors that we need to take into account, their variety and the relationships between them. The more factors, the greater their variety and the more they are interconnected, the more complex an environment is. Some information is available, or predictable, but the volume or nature of it can be overwhelming to process. The more complex the world is, the harder it is to analyze and come to rational conclusions.
• Ambiguity – A lack of clarity about how to interpret something. Situations where information is incomplete, contradicting or too inaccurate to draw clear conclusions. More generally, it refers to fuzziness and vagueness in ideas and terminology. The more ambiguous the world is, the harder it is to interpret. The causal relationships are completely unclear. No precedents exist and you often face many “unknown unknowns.”

Tactical Remedies for Each of the VUCA Forces

The VUCA model has great value as a strategic planning tool. By using it as a framework to interpret the current operating environment, business leaders and growth strategists can think creatively about new strategies for the organization, and begin planning for alternative scenarios.

One common question that many leaders ask is how do you counteract each of the four VUCA forces?

Great question, here is how…

We can describe the best VUCA leaders by their vision, understanding, clarity, and adaptability. These four leadership abilities become the opposing force to each element of the VUCA model.

It looks like this:

• Vision counteracts Volatility
• Understanding counteracts Uncertainty
• Clarity counteracts Complexity
• Adaptability counteracts Ambiguity

The key to managing in a VUCA environment is to break it down into its component parts. Once we identify volatile, uncertain, complex, or ambiguous situations then we can tackle them. Since each type of situation has its own causes and resolutions, so it is best to deal with them one at a time.

In the next sections, we will look at each of these forces.

Counter Volatility with Vision

Vision – You can counteract the first VUCA force (Volatility) with Vision.

In this context, vision is not referring to sight, or the ability to see. It is an acknowledgement that in turbulent times it is very easy to get distracted. Leaders need to rise above volatility by having a clear vision of the future for their organization.

Leaders with a clear long-term vision of where they want their organizations to be can better weather volatile shorter-term environmental changes such as economic downturns or new competition in their markets. Vision helps them see past the immediate chaos.

Some helpful tips:

• It almost goes without saying, but leaders much acknowledge that change is the only constant. By embracing change, we can find opportunity. Accept and embrace change, and encourage your teams to do the same. Resistance is futile!
• Begin with the end in mind. The US Army calls this the “Backward Planning Sequence”, where they plan a mission from the end first (actions on the objective) then work backwards, step-by-step, to the beginning of the operation.
• Build all strategies and plans on the strong foundation of the organization’s Core Ideology (mission, values, purpose). This “true North” approach to navigating an organization is similar to using a compass instead of the map! It provides clarity and helps prevent external chaotic events from pulling them off course, or abandoning their mission.
• Leaders should always be thinking, and communicating to their teams, from the perspective of the organization’s Envisioned Future (vision, long-term objectives). By painting a compelling picture of the future, and illuminating the path to get there, they will align people and resources, and provide the motivational push to get it done.
• While long-term objectives should be solid, it is important that leaders allow their teams some flexibility in how they get there. This latitude allows them to react, in real-time, to changing market conditions.

Beat Uncertainty with Understanding

Understanding – You can counteract the second VUCA force (Uncertainty) with Understanding.

To be effective in a chaotic VUCA environment, leaders have to look and listen beyond their functional areas of expertise and span of control. To make sense of the volatility and to lead with vision they need broad Situational Awareness of their operating environment.

By deliberating practicing a “stop, look, and listen” approach, leaders will gain important decision-making information. To do this effectively requires leaders to communicate with all levels of employees in their organization and to develop and demonstrate teamwork and collaboration skills.

Some useful tips:

1. When building situational awareness, many leaders make the mistake of only paying attention to information sources and opinions that reinforce their own views. This creates a huge risk of missing alternate viewpoints. Instead, leaders need to cast a wide net. They should get different points of view from many sources by engaging directly with their customers and employees to ensure they learn about changes in their markets. The best leaders wander around the office talking to their teams and get out of the building to spend time with clients, prospects and partners in the marketplace.
2. Once the encounter uncertainty in their operating environment, leaders can gain an overview by evaluating the PESTEL factors: political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legislative.
3. With broad situational awareness of their environment and their vision in mind, leaders also need to have an in-depth understanding of their organization’s strengths and weaknesses. The goal should always be to take advantage of rapidly changing circumstances by playing to strengths while minimizing weaknesses.
4. Leaders should embrace Scenario Planning as a critical part of their strategic planning process. This useful tool helps leaders and their teams to anticipate future threats and begin preparing contingency plans to respond.

React to Complexity with Clarity

Clarity – You can counteract the third VUCA force (Complexity) with Clarity.

We all know that in a VUCA world, chaos comes quickly and hits you hard. Leaders who can react swiftly and tune out the noise will make better decisions.

To gain clarity effectively, leaders need to break problems down to the basics. By learning to simplify challenges down to their root causes, leaders and their teams can then begin to think creatively and make quick decisions on how to respond.

Some useful tips:

• Make sure that everyone in the organization understands the vision and long-term objectives you are trying to reach. Leaders should communicate the organization’s vision, purpose, and values often. An emergency is not the ideal time to help your team understand the organization’s direction!
• The best teams are creative and collaborate often. Leaders need to develop this capability across the organization. VUCA situations are usually too complicated for one person to handle on their own. It takes a team.

Overcome Ambiguity with Adaptability

Adaptability – You can counteract the fourth VUCA force (Ambiguity) with Adaptability.

This concept of adaptability applies perfectly to today’s chaotic VUCA environment. I believe those organizations (and leaders) who are best able to adapt to change will grow and thrive. Those who don’t, won’t!

By taking an agile approach, moving swiftly and adapting to circumstances, leaders and their teams can quickly make decisions and execute. This requires many of the skills and abilities discussed above plus a willingness to experiment, iterate, and figure out what works in the face of adversity. This is what I have

Some useful tips:

• Effective leaders reinforce to their teams that the only way to make progress towards any objective is to take action. This deliberate effort in the face of hostile VUCA forces is not always easy, or pretty. When in doubt, move fast, and get stuff done!
• Teams need to try hard, fail fast, and learn. Then rinse and repeat. This adaptation to changing market conditions is the key to competing and winning in any market. Leaders can promote agility and adaptability by encouraging their teams to plan, and consider alternative scenarios.
• In many organizations, long-range plans are often obsolete by the time they are approved and funded. This does not mean the effort was wasted. Leaders should encourage continuous consideration of alternative strategies, that way there is always a plan B, in case the first strategy does not work out.
• Leaders should encourage their teams to continuously be learning about themselves, the market, and their teammates. They also need the latitude and flexibility to experiment, without fear of making a mistake or failing.

Thriving in Turbulent Times

Many experts agree that VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) forces are only going to increase in frequency and intensity. However, that does not mean VUCA is a bad thing. It represents the changing environmental conditions most organizations must now operate within, and overcome if they want to be successful.

Since organizations are largely powerless to stop VUCA – leaders and their teams must learn how to live with, and effectively manage, these forces in their market environment. By learning how to counteract each VUCA force – with vision, understanding, clarity, and adaptability – we can thrive in these turbulent times.

-Onward