“Expect the unexpected.” – Bear Bryant
We are accelerating into a new and unpredictable VUCA business environment.
The disruptive forces of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity are playing out across almost every company and industry.
Against this backdrop, VUCA has proven to be a great organizing framework to help strategic leaders think about potential new threats. However, I have noticed that many organizations struggle to identify VUCA threats and translate them into actionable inputs as they are making their strategic plans.
In this article we’ll start to break down the challenge and work towards an approach for dealing with VUCA forces.
What is VUCA?
The United States Army War College was one of the first organizations to embrace the concept of VUCA, after the so-called Cold War ended. Military planners began to worry about the radically different, unstable, and completely unfamiliar international security environment that had emerged. They coined the acronym VUCA to describe it:
- Volatile – Change that is rapid and unpredictable in its nature and extent. The challenge is unexpected or unstable, and may be of unknown duration. However, it is not necessarily hard to understand; knowledge about it is often available.
- Uncertain – The present is unclear and the future is uncertain. Despite a lack of other information, the event’s basic cause and effect are known. Change is possible but not a given.
- Complex – Many different, interconnected factors come into play, with the potential to cause chaos and confusion. The situation has many interconnected parts and variables. Some information is available or predictable, but the volume or nature of it can be overwhelming to process.
- Ambiguous – There is a lack of clarity or awareness about situations. Causal relationships are completely unclear. No precedents exist; you face “unknown unknowns.”
For simplicity, let’s look at each element in isololation:
- In a purely volatile (but not uncertain, complex and ambiguous) world, there is a lot of fast, but predictable change.
- On the other hand, in a purely uncertain (but not volatile, complex and ambiguous) world, it is hard to tell how things will develop.
- In a purely complex (but not volatile, uncertain and ambiguous) world, things are hard to untangle and understand.
- Finally, in a purely ambiguous (but not volatile, uncertain and complex) world, things are just hard to discern at all.
We see proof of these every day.
Unfortunately, out in the wild these dark forces do not typically present themselves in isolation. Rather, they can come at undesirable times, and in a variety of combinations and sequences. All of which makes the job of leaders infinitely more challenging.
Why is Understanding VUCA So Important?
While its origins lie in military planning, the concept of VUCA transfers perfectly to the world of business. Especially now.
Many experts predict that volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity are going to become even more prevalent in the future. To manage teams and create strategic plans for organizations in this “new normal” era of disruption, leaders need to be aware of the changes that this kind of environment can cause.
The turbulent and unpredictable VUCA forces of change will affect all organizations, at all levels. This type of environment poses many threats to an organization, including:
- Overwhelming your team and making them anxious or nervous about the future.
- Sapping their energy and motivation to take action.
- Throwing uncertainty into their career paths.
- Causing skills to become obsolete and forcing constant retraining.
- Consuming large amounts of time and resources to understand and combat.
- Increasing the complexity of making decisions, and the chances of making mistakes.
- Slowing down the decision-making process.
- Causing short-term thinking, and knee-jerk reactions.
- Jeopardizing strategic long-term projects, developments and innovation.
As a result, we need to develop new skills, practice new behaviors, and take better approaches to manage the threat. If this environment affects your industry or organization, you have to reconsider the way you and your business plan and execute.
This is the value of the VUCA Strategic Planning Methodology.
Benefits of Embracing VUCA
Every leader, and every organization, has a basic choice when it comes to VUCA.
You can either allow VUCA forces to “own” you – running the risk of overloading and overwhelming your organization. Or, you can accept and manage it – working vigilantly with your team to plan for and mitigate its effects.
Ironically, if you decide to accept VUCA, you also start to gain immunity to its impact…
When you accept VUCA as something that is not going away, you also make yourself and your people less vulnerable, and you empower everyone to deal better with uncontrollable, unpredictable forces. You are shifting from a reactive to a proactive approach. Practicing forward-looking strategy instead of backward-looking tactics.
VUCA is definitely a challenge for leaders, and presents an opportunity to develop and improve leadership and management skills. It is also an opportunity for individuals and teams to up their game and become more effective.
A Playbook for Managing in a VUCA World
How do you effectively manage teams and organizations with these VUCA forces?
- The accelerating rate of change (volatility)
- The lack of predictability (uncertainty)
- The interconnectedness of cause-and-effect forces (complexity)
- And the strong potential for misreads (ambiguity).
If we embrace and think about each of these disruptive forces we can begin to develop a playbook for managing and leading in a VUCA world. As we contemplate strategic approaches to combat each VUCA element, a strategic approach begins to emerge.
- We can counter volatility with vision. Creating a compelling vision, values, and purpose for your organization.
- We can meet uncertainty with understanding. Greater situational awareness, understanding what your competitors and the market are doing.
- We can react to complexity with clarity. Clearly structured teams and effective communication from leaders on the strategy and objectives.
- We can fight ambiguity with adaptability. An agile approach to developing a strategic plan and execution.
The next article will go deeper into this approach and explore each element in greater detail.
-Onward