“The difference between being a victim and a survivor is often a low level of situational awareness.” – Barry Eisler
With the amount of change and disruption in the world and in our current business climate, it has never been more important for leaders to be aware of their surroundings, and thoroughly understand the internal and external forces that can have an impact on their organization.
Effective strategic planning requires an honest appraisal of your starting point and operating environment. This is called “situational awareness,” and it is vital to have it before creating a VUCA strategic plan. A thorough and honest assessment of your current reality will not only help inform your strategy, but it will also help to identify potential pitfalls and alternative scenarios to consider and prepare for.
The Foundation for VUCA Strategic Planning
Before geting into the details of situational awareness, here’s a quick review of the two foundational elements that should be in place for effective VUCA strategic planning to take place:
- Core Ideology – defining the mission, values, and purpose of the organization. These elements describe why the organization exists and what it stands for. They create a “true North” guidepost for making strategic decisions and are the foundation for any VUCA plan. With this foundational framework you will have greater clarity when making critical business decisions that impact the future of your organization.
- Envisioned Future – defining a clear vision for what the organization aspires to become or achieve, and your long-term goals. Together, these elements explain the desired future state of the organization, and the long-term goals you and your team are working towards achieving in order to get there.
With this solid planning foundation, leaders are ready to begin thinking about their strategic options. This requires the identification and understanding of their current environment, and the ability to project that into the future.
First, Put It All on the Table
To craft an effective VUCA plan, we have to know exactly where the starting position is. You need to know your current reality. Because if you don’t know where you are, then how will you know when you get there?!
Much like sailing a ship, in order to plot a course forward we have to know where we are, where we are going, but also what the environment around us looks like.
Warning: This stage of the strategic planning process is difficult for many organizations. Not because it is inherently “hard” to do, but rather because it requires honesty and deep inquiry, something that many leaders (and their leadership teams) are just not willing or able to do.
Why do they resist? Oftentimes it is because the truth hurts. Or, because challenging sacrosanct beliefs is difficult, and may bring into question prior executive decisions. Or, because they just may not know how to go about gaining market clarity.
Please pardon the expression, but for this reason I often refer to this stage of the strategic planning process as finding and putting all the crap on the table.
It is not easy. Nor is it always fun. However, it is very necessary…and by giving it “heat and light” you can drive productive outcomes.
Gaining situational awareness helps to inform strategy, clarify your direction, and leads naturally to developing a plan.
What is Situational Awareness?
The phrase “situational awareness” comes from military aviation and is defined as “the perception of environmental elements and events with respect to time and space, the comprehension of their meaning, and the projection of their future status.” The ability to gain situational awareness quickly is essential for combat pilots if they are to survive an encounter with enemy aircraft.
Here is a strategic planning definition: Situational awareness involves knowing where you are and being aware of what is happening in your environment, in order to better understand how information, events, and one’s own actions will impact both immediate and future outcomes.
Put another way, situational awareness is the ability to identify, process, and comprehend the critical elements of information about what is occurring or is about to occur. Every leader has the responsibility to know what is happening within their organization and the world it operates in.
While gaining situational awareness sounds fairly easy in a stable and simple situation, it becomes significantly more challenging in a rapidly changing and disruptive environment because it is not a static snapshot, but rather a real-time capture of a dynamic environment. This makes situational awareness especially relevant for situations or environments characterized by a high level of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA).
That sure sounds like today’s business environment!
The Three Levels of Situational Awareness
In strategic planning, there are three levels of situational awareness to consider. They build on one another sequentially, and there are important elements of VUCA planning that take place in each so we need to consider them all:
- Level 1 – Perceiving
- Level 2 – Understanding
- Level 3 – Predicting
Following is a quick overview of each:
Level 1 – Perceiving: Perceptions of data and the elements in the environment
The first step in gaining situational awareness is to be able to identify the state, characteristics and dynamics of all the relevant elements in your current operating environment. This is sometimes called the “as is” view.
There are two important implications. First, the individual or organization must have access to the relevant information. Second, once this access is in place, the individual or organization has to recognize it. Consequently, one of the key requirements for Level 1 situational awareness is the communication and proper visualization of data.
Gaining situational awareness for organizations often involves internal analysis of the company and an external analysis of the marketplace or economy. There are many proven analytical tools and techniques to accomplish this, such as SWOTER and PESTLE analyses, which will be covered in future articles.
However, it is not enough to be able to perceive all the factors in certain situations. One needs to learn to make sense of the connections between these elements, hence the second level of situation awareness: understanding.
Level 2 – Understanding: Comprehension of the meaning and significance of the current situation
Understanding goes beyond simple awareness of the elements that are presented. The second level of situational awareness refers to the requirement that we must properly comprehend the relevant information. Comprehension of the current situation is based on thorough analyses of all Level 1 elements. As a decision maker, one not only needs to draw a holistic picture of the situation with sufficient knowledge first level elements — but also have the ability to understand the significance of those elements in relation to each other, and to the achievement of the goal.
Depending on the specific situation, Level 2 understanding requires the right knowledge to deal with the acquired information. This is where mental models and strategic frameworks can play an important role. By taking the Level 1 information and interpreting it through a new or existing mental model, or strategic framework, we can be begin to stress-test possible approaches based on what we know.
This works because when we create a new model or update an existing one based on how we’ve interpreted the information, if something important is missing, the information is incorrect, or the information doesn’t make sense, the model fails to work. It either means we don’t have all the information we need, or the approach is not the right one.
For business planning there are many well-known strategic frameworks that can be considered depending on the situation, including internal/external considerations, vision, long-term goals, VUCA environmental factors, etc.
After this analysis, and initial consideration/formulation of strategic frameworks, we will then come to our next level of situation awareness: the ability to predict the future status based on our understanding of the current situation.
Level 3 – Predicting: Projection of future status and events
You achieve the third level of situational awareness by applying the information and insights perceived and comprehended in the first two levels. This knowledge is then used to project forward and begin to predict potential future actions or outcomes of the elements in the environment.
This level is especially important in dynamic VUCA environments, because the ultimate goal of building situational awareness is to utilize the information collected to predict the most likely potential outcomes as a result of these elements, and to then use this information for decision making.
For strategic planning we do can accomplish this through the development and consideration of scenarios. This “what if” level of planning is crucial for dynamic VUCA environments because it allows leaders and their teams to consider a range of possibilities and then think through how they will react ahead of time. This has obvious decision making and execution benefits. Much more on this in future articles.
It becomes even more important in complex systems or environments, which are characterized by many interdependencies, because it is much more difficult to predict how changes in one variable might influence those around it and the whole. As a result, we must constantly re-evaluate and adjust our mental models or strategic frameworks as we gain new information.
Situational Awareness Connects the Person (and Team) to the Environment
A key foundational concept behind situational awareness is the distinction between an individual (or a team, or an organization) and the environment they operate in. The environment refers to everything that is going on around the individual, team, or organization. The reason we focus on important elements of the environment is to emphasize that situational awareness is ultimately about enabling an individual, team, or organization to get something done. This can be a task, a project, an initiative, or anything else that requires interaction with, and reaction to, relevant elements of the environment.
Ultimately, no strategic plan ever survives contact with the market without some change.
But the true value is not in having an ironclad plan that doesn’t change, but rather in having thought through potential challenges to achieving the long-term goals of the organization, so that individuals, teams, and the organization can react quickly and decisively. This leads to the final stage of strategic planning, where a decision is made and the plan is broken down and delegated to those responsible for achieving it.
In the end, strategic planning is completely useless unless some action is taken by an individual or team.
Conclusion
There are three levels of situational awareness:
- Level 1 – Perception of data and the elements of the current environment, ideally taking an internal and external perspective on the starting point.
- Level 2 – Comprehension of the meaning and significance of the current situation, including some consideration/formulation of a strategy framework or mental model.
- Level 3 – Projection of future status and events, including some prediction of potential scenarios and consideration of their likelihood and potential response.
Situational awareness is the starting point for strategic planning – Simply, it is knowing where you are, what is going on around you, and how you might react to any impacts that might prevent you from achieving your objective.
For business success you need internal perspective on your organization’s strengths and weaknesses, and external perspective on your market position and strength, how customers view you, competitive landscape, etc. It is far too common to see leadership teams developing comprehensive strategic plans without looking at what is happening outside of their organization. Furthermore, many organizations never consider potential threats or destabilizing forces, or their potential response to them.
Investing in gaining situational awareness is the solution.
Hopefully you can see that these situational awareness steps — perceiving the elements in the environment to know your starting point, understanding how the environment might impact your goal, and being able to use this information to predict future events and possible strategic responses — can help you, your team, and your organization achieve success.
Stay tuned; in an upcoming article I will discuss the value of setting “SMARTER objectives” when creating a VUCA strategic plan. This is a key ingredient to getting results.
-Onward