“Close scrutiny will show that most ‘crisis situations’ are opportunities to either advance, or stay where you are.” – Maxwell Maltz
There is little doubt that every organization in every industry will be permanently altered in some way from the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
In prior articles, I’ve shared that crisis can create opportunity, and we now live a VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) world. There are still many things we don’t know and need to figure out, however there is also a growing realization that we have a very limited capacity to keep things locked down.
Against this backdrop, local and federal governments around the world are making urgent plans to loosen shelter-in-place restrictions and re-open their economies. Organizations are also considering how they can resume operation and safely bring their workers back to the workplace. Many of these considerations are centered around the world of work: the nature of work itself, the workforce, returning to work, the workplace, and the organization.
Having spent the past 20 years providing human capital management solutions to enterprise clients, and having a front-row seat to the evolving world of work, here are my thoughts on what the new normal might look like:
The work
- Work from home. It’s here to stay. Forced by mandatory shelter-in-place orders, organizations quickly figured out how to provision and enable large numbers of formerly office-bound workers to work remotely from their homes. There are many crisis-related reasons why this hasn’t been perfect (for example, children at home due to school closures, internet bandwidth, etc) but the bottom line is it has largely worked, and will grow in prominence.
- Remote work. Moving forward, more organizations will leverage the work-from-home experience and embrace remote work. The enlightened ones will realize it can also deliver many productivity and psychic benefits to the worker, the less altruistic might do it purely for cost savings and access to cheaper labor.
- Projectized work. A related thread is the very nature of work itself will change. Once you start to revisit where work gets done, you can also revisit who does it, and how it is packaged. I think more work will be structured as projects (new verb: projectized!), with a focus on outcomes and deliverables, versus the traditional role based work output.
- Videoconferencing. Obviously, videoconferencing technology adoption (thanks Zoom!) has been greatly accelerated. As more of us learn how to manage our days remotely and more of our business interactions through video, it will be natural to continue doing so even when we are able to meet in person again. This will have interesting long-term implications for business travel and traditionally heavy travel dependent professions (hello management consulting!)
- Technology-enabled. Another aspect to working virtually will be broader and deeper adoption of software to improve collaboration for distributed teams, store and share work artifacts, and manage remote workers. In parallel, with so much work being done outside of the traditional secure office environment, spending on security software will definitely grow in volume and importance in order to protect the organization.
The workforce
- PTSD. I’ve heard people joke about the impending COVID baby boom (we’ll have to wait and see!), but on a more serious note I think there will be a wave of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) from this crisis. Very few have lived through anything this stressful and impactful in our lifetime. There will likely be lingering effects that require assistance from mental healthcare professionals, and accommodation from employers.
- Non-employee labor. The growth of the contingent workforce has been a long-term trend over the past two decades. It will take a huge hit in the short-term (temp labor is always the quickest and easiest thing to cut first), however in the long-term it will grow due to a number of the trends cited in this article: more project-based work, more remote workers, better technology to manage work, and the need for more flexibility by organizations.
- Worker protection. With the dramatic growth of the “gig economy” over the past few years there has not been enough attention given to the pervasive issues around protecting the self-employed, independent contractors, or gig workers. Access to affordable healthcare, unemployment insurance, wage and hour protections are just some of the issues. Ironically, the CARES relief package that Congress passed might actually break new ground on this issue and lead to better legislation. Could it ultimately lead to the mythical “third class” of worker sitting in between employee and independent contractor status? We’ll have to wait and see!
Returning to work
- Re-start sequencing. Here in the US it appears that individual states and counties will each craft their own re-start plan. It will likely be done in successive waves of workers re-entering the workplace, defined by geography and industry, with the most essential given priority. I’m wondering if this process will set precedent for a new “class system” within the economy. For example, who defines what’s essential? Are dog groomers more or less important than hairdressers? Dentists versus dermatologists?
- WFH. It has been estimated that 42% of US workforce could work from home (i.e. they’re not tied to a location specific factory or service job) – what if all of them don’t want to go back to the office? Once the economy picks back up many professionals will be thinking of this. This will be complicated because the decision probably depends on many factors, including their family and housing situation, commute, role, age, mobility. A recent survey of HP employees indicated 87% would like to keep remote working. Wow!
- Commuting. Related to working from home, this deserves a special call out. Many have seen their daily commute radically changed from several hours a day to just a few steps from the bedroom to a home office. We’re already seeing that these extra hours can have a profound impact on productivity, work-life balance, and the environment. NYC has reported a decline in subway ridership of 90%, you have to wonder how much it will come back.
- Living patterns. Technology-enabled remote working will likely drive an exodus out of historically job-rich urban areas. It has been reported that more Americans would like to live in rural communities than would like to live in cities.
- Work schedules. Changes to commuting patterns, travel patterns, and living patterns may lead to changes in work schedules. Will we see more flexibility around days worked, and schedules?
- Immunity certification. Widespread testing is a key component of managing the pandemic and safely restarting the economy. It makes sense that workers should have a clean bill of health in order to set foot in an office, factory, or airplane. But, how will this work? Will there be health certification cards? Who will issue, monitor, certify them? How will your personal health information be protected? Many questions, few answers so far…
The workplace
- WFH policy. Working from home will be an option for some but not all workers. Some organizations must have workers come in (for example, healthcare, factories, distribution, retail) others might not need to (most white-collar professions). Organizations will need to think carefully about the implications of their policies, carefully balancing the needs of the business with what workers want. Providing options and flexibility will be an important talent attraction and retention tool.
- Workstations. One likely outcome is that the much-hated “open office” workplace will revert to more traditional cubicles or enclosed offices. Companies will need to provide more flexible “hoteling” options for their workers. One positive benefit is there will be less capital intensive real estate needed for the organization to operate!
- Work rules. It is likely that social distancing will be a new norm. How will this be accommodated in a work setting? The impact could be huge when you think about the physical challenges of hallways, meeting rooms, restrooms, elevators, and cafeterias.
- PPE. Will workers have to wear masks and other forms of personal protection equipment? Will the type be mandated? Bring your own, or provided by the organization? How will the organization ensure a properly sanitized and “safe” working environment?
The organization
I’ve saved this section for last, because organizational issues will likely prove to be the most difficult.
- People first. They say that great leaders are forged in battle, and this pandemic has proved it. For me it has re-affirmed what many exceptional leaders already know – it is all about the people. Demonstrating empathy, compassion, and clear communication to workers will hopefully become part of every leaders toolkit moving forward.
- The value of HR. Organizations will need to re-invent themselves and focus more on “the business of the business”. This is an excellent opportunity for corporate HR and legal teams to rise up and really demonstrate their value as change agents, protectors of the enterprise, and designers of the future organization.
- Policy updates. Organizations will be forced to revisit (or, more likely, develop entirely new) policies that address such vital new issues as COVID testing, social distancing, who can or cannot work remotely, travel, expenses, etc.
- Workforce planning. In a new and more uncertain (VUCA) world of work, many organizations will begin to revisit their structures, and workforce composition. Needing greater access to talent, and more flexibility, organizations will seek to better optimize the mix of employees and non-employees of all stripes (temp labor, contractors, gig workers, etc.)
- Remote management. Organizations will need to re-think the physical logistics of how they manage the entire worker lifecycle, developing new ways of interviewing, onboarding, training, managing, and offboarding workers who are now working remotely.
- Legal minefield. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce shares that businesses are anxious about a wave of lawsuits from customers and workers who contract COVID-19 in the workplace. Customers and employees can sue a business for lost wages, medical expenses, and other damages if they prove negligence, recklessness, or intentional disregard for their safety. Some recommended precautions could run up against workplace protection laws, such as: Telling other employees when someone is sick (privacy violation), Requiring workers to test negative before coming back (discrimination and health privacy) and, Prohibiting at-risk populations like the elderly from coming to work (more discrimination)
Wow! That’s a lot…
A crisis of this magnitude will surely create and accelerate dramatic change in the broader world of work. It could easily take 12-18 months, or more, for the full post-pandemic picture to emerge – a status likely determined by the widespread availability of testing, no major new outbreaks, and a vaccine.
An important component of strategic planning is to start with what you know (both good and bad) as the foundation for planning a path forward. I hope that this article has provided some perspective for you and your organization to start planning for the new world of work. With this foundation in place, you can begin to consider contingencies for various scenarios that may or may not become reality once things get moving.
Much, much more to come…
-Onward